What many Canadians initially saw as a temporary dip in travel to the U.S. is now evolving into what feels like a genuine boycott. The growing discontent among Canadians regarding tariffs and heightened political tensions with the U.S. is taking a visible toll on travel patterns.
According to aviation data company OAG, GDS passenger bookings on Canada-U.S. routes have plummeted by over 70% each month through September when comparing to the same period last year. In February, Statistics Canada reported that the number of Canadian car trips to the U.S. dropped by 23%, resulting in only 1.2 million return trips. These numbers tell a troubling story for both Canadian travelers and the U.S. tourism sector that relies heavily on their patronage.
McKenzie McMillan, who serves as a luxury consultant and supplier relations manager at The Travel Group in Vancouver, indicates that the effects are becoming increasingly material. “At first, we saw a few cancellations, but now it’s so much deeper,” he shared. “The bigger concern is future bookings, which have completely cratered. Our agency hasn’t seen any leisure travel requests for the U.S. lately.”
While some corporate travel persists, popular leisure destinations such as Phoenix and Southern California have witnessed a complete shutdown of interest, leaving Canadian travelers to seek alternatives. Instead, many are exploring opportunities within Canada, traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast, or opting for international locations like Europe and Mexico. This shift might breathe life into some Canadian locales; however, it poses a real economic stress for communities on the U.S. side that traditionally benefit from cross-border weekend trips.
Trina White, the general manager of The Parkside Hotel & Spa in Victoria, British Columbia, has noted a concerning decline in ferry traffic between Victoria and its U.S. partners, Seattle and Port Angeles. “Being a border town, we’re invested in both sides of the border,” she said, reflecting the anxiety that many local businesses share. “What’s happening right now certainly has the potential to adversely affect small businesses.”
Before these shifting travel patterns, Canadians were the predominant source of international visitors to the U.S., with 20.4 million visits in 2024 generating an impressive $20.5 billion in spending, according to the U.S. Travel Association. However, U.S. Travel’s February analysis warned that a 10% decrease in Canadian travel could lead to 2 million fewer visits and a staggering $2.1 billion decline in tourism revenue.
Yet, McMillan suggests that the potential impact could be even more pronounced than that. “From my conversations with clients, I can tell you that the damage has already been done,” he noted. “Right now, promoting travel to the U.S. doesn’t feel beneficial for our agency.”
In a proactive response, U.S. destination management organizations are working hard to maintain Canadian interest and visitation. David Blandford, the executive director of State of Washington Tourism, acknowledged the adjustments Canadians are making to their travel plans due to the current political climate. “Given that Canadians are our top international market, their presence is vital for our tourism economy,” he emphasized.
Concerns echo throughout other regions, too. In Whitefish, Montana, Canadian visitation fell by 14.2% in January of 2024 compared to the previous year, as expressed by Lucy Guthrie Beighle, the communications director for Montana’s Glacier Country. “It’s tough to pinpoint whether the downturn is a result of the strong U.S. dollar or political tensions,” she noted, but she and her colleagues remain hopeful about welcoming Canadian visitors back. “Montana will always embrace our Canadian friends,” she assured.
New York state’s tourism efforts continue to flourish despite the challenges. Ross Levi, the executive director of Empire State Development, reports ongoing initiatives to attract Canadian travelers. Similarly, in New York City, where Canadians represent the second-largest international market, CEO Julie Coker of New York City Tourism + Conventions remains optimistic. “We’ve faced hurdles before and come out stronger,” she remarked, even as some Broadway venues experience a slowdown in bookings and smaller Canadian tour operators report cancellations.
Coker highlighted the steps NYC Tourism is taking to engage Canadians, including a press trip timed with a baseball game between New York and Toronto. “Our ‘With Love and Liberty’ campaign stands as a beacon for diversity and inclusion,” she stated passionately. “We want all visitors to feel welcome here.”
The situation for airlines, however, paints a more sobering picture. According to OAG, airlines have cut around 320,000 seats between Canada and the U.S. through October, with significant reductions occurring in peak summer months. United Airlines’ CEO has noted a substantial decrease in demand, prompting cuts in U.S.-Canada flight capacities. Air Canada has also proactively reduced its offerings to Florida, Las Vegas, and Arizona.
For many Canadians, the dissatisfaction extends beyond mere border crossings. “We’ve had clients who would usually transit through Miami to get to Vancouver now say, ‘We’ll take a layover in Toronto instead,’ due to their unease about traveling through the U.S.,” McMillan explained. Noting the distress many Canadians feel about crossing the border, he stated, “I’ve never seen Canadians this angry, hurt, and scared simultaneously.”
The ongoing changes in travel behavior reflect not only shifting preferences but an evolving sentiment that underscores the sensitive nature of Canada-U.S. relations. With the travel landscape in flux, it remains to be seen how these dynamics will reshape cross-border connections for the foreseeable future.
Image Source: Wichakorn Kitrungrot / Shutterstock
